NOT AN EASY ROAD IN LONDON THIS SUMMER

The Olympics are less than 100 days away and already the excitement is building. Increasingly, Jamaicans are starting to think that London 2012 is going to bring success to Jamaica similar to what was accomplished in Beijing, China (11 medals including six gold) four years ago. But while I do hope that Jamaica will do as well, I know for certain that it will not be as easy.

For the past few years or so Jamaica’s sprinters have dominated their American counterparts and many pundits expect that current trend to continue into London this summer. However, there are some things that should be noted. Last year at the World Championships in Daegu, South Korea, the Americans hit back. Shelly Ann Frazer Pryce, the defending Olympic champion and the 2009 World champion, relinquished her world crown to Carmelita Jeter in Daegu, South Korea last year. The 26-year-old Jamaican superstar has not been herself since winning in Berlin in 2009 but there are indications that she could be on her way back to full fitness by this summer. It will be interesting to see what she produces on the track en-route to London.

Veronica Cambpbell Brown has been leading the charge of the Jamaican women since 2009. Since she finished fourth in Berlin, she has been the fastest Jamaican but not even her rise has been able to keep Jeter at bay. Jeter, now supremely confident after claiming two gold medals in Daegu, will be hard to beat in London and I suspect that if she is to be beaten it will require a time not yet run by a Jamaican woman to win gold in London.

Jeter will also be a threat in the 200 metres, an event in which she secured the silver medal last year in Daegu, despite being a novice in the event at the global level. The Americans also have Alyson Felix who will undoubtedly prepare different for London this year and renew her rivalry with Jeter and two-time champion VCB in the race for the title this summer. Sherone Simpson is also expected to return to her 2006 form by this summer but will it be enough to help Jamaica keep the Olympic title?

Melaine Walker and Kaliese Spencer will lead Jamaica’s challenge in the 400 metres hurdles. Providing both women are healthy, Jamaica could medal in London but Lashinda Demus buoyed by her win in Daegu last summer will be harder to beat. Shericka Williams, who has not been in the best of form over the past two seasons, but is reportedly returning to good health. Her troubles, however, will be on the track where Sanya Richards is back to full fitness following a disastrous season last year and the battle for the Olympic crown will be joined by Amantle Monthsho, Felix, as well as Dee Dee Trotter and the dangerous Russians. If she gets back to her best, Williams could grab a medal but she will have to be at her best to do so.

On the men’s side of things, once Bolt is healthy he should defend his titles and Yohan Blake and Asafa Powell will represent Jamaica well. Blake as world champion is no longer an up and comer, he has arrived and his 9.82 runs last season and the astonishing 19.26-second run in Brussels suggests that he will be in the thick of things this summer. However, the Americans are on their way back.

Justin Gatlin is the World Indoor Champion and has run 20.11 so far this season, and while his times are impressive I dont believe he will contend for a medal as the sprinting world is now a little beyond his very best. However, Walter Dix has continued to show improvement as has Richard Thompson from Trinidad. As it stands right now there will be three Jamaicans, three Americans, one Frenchman and a Trinidadian in the men’s 100m finals. Bolt and two others will be on the podium but who will those two be.

In the 200m it is again Bolt’s race to lose – which he wont. The question is who will be there with him.

Jermaine Gonzales represents Jamaica’s best shot at an individual medal in the 400metres for men. Like last year in Daegu where he fell short of a medal by 0.01 seconds, Gonzales faces a stacked field in London. The Borlee brothers from Belgium, Chris Brown from the Bahamas, Rondell Bartholomew and World Champion Kirani James from Grenada and the dangerous American pair of Jeremy Wariner and LaShawn Merritt. Gonzales will have to be better than his previous best of 44.40s to even begin to think of a medal.

The sprint relays are going to be even more competitive than ever before. The American men can field a team of Tyson Gay, Gatlin, Dix and one other, perhaps Mike Rodgers or Darvis Patton. Whoever they choose, they will be a bigger threat to Jamaican than ever before but Jamaica will triumph once the baton makes it way around. On the women’s side, it will be closer than it was last year. Simpson, Stewart, Frazer-Pryce and VCB should be in better shape than they were last year and if that is the case the race could go down to the wire.

It will be hard for Jamaica’s men to medal in the mile relay. Three other runners will have to step up big time to help Gonzales. If they don’t Jamaica will not see the podium in that event. The women should fare better but the Americans and the Russians will prove too strong.

So before we start flying off the handle about how many medals Jamaica will win, we need to put things in perspective. We need to realize that we want these medals badly but there are others who want them even more.