CURB YOUR ENTHUSIASM (on current form J’ca’s medal prospects look bleak)

I remember how in 2008, Jamaica got the world excited again about track and field. Usain Bolt had done the unthinkable but becoming the first man to break the 9.70-second barrier and claim his first Olympic gold medal even though he basically stopped running 15 metres from the finish line, beating his chest and then spreading his arms wide as if he was ready to fly. He claimed his second gold and world record in the 200 metres and then crowned his performance at the Games with a third gold and record in the sprint relay.

Shelly Ann Fraser-Pryce confounded critics when she became the first Jamaican woman to claim Olympic gold in the 100 metres stirring even more conversation about Jamaica’s success at the Games. In the years following Jamaican athletes remained on a high, delivering similar performances at the World Championships in Berlin in 2009, 2011 and 2013 and at the London Olympics in 2012. It would be remiss not to mention the country’s dominance at the Commonwealth Games in Australia in 2006 when Jamaica virtually won all the sprints, telling the world we were ready to take on all comers.

Basically, it’s been a nice run; nine years of memorable performances that will mark what has been Jamaica’s new golden era. The success of our track and field athletes in the last decade has far surpassed that achieved by Herb McKenley, Arthur Wint, Les Laing and George Rhoden between 1948 and 1952. Now here we are in 2015, and alas, I fear that this golden era may be about to end.

Certainly on paper things don’t seem as rosy as they have been in recent times going into the World Championships in Beijing this coming August. Bolt is struggling for form, Yohan Blake is returning from injury, Melaine Walker has become a mystery, Veronica Campbell Brown seems to be on the wane, Nesta Carter looks off colour, and Brigitte Foster Hylton and Deloreen Ennis have hurdled off into the sunset.

If the World Championships were to be held now, and not at the end of August, Jamaica’s prospects for medals would seem very bleak. In the men’s 100 metres, an event that Jamaica has won at the last three World Championships and two Olympiads, ‘the sprint factory’, in terms of times run so far this season, has only one medal prospect. Asafa Powell’s 9.84 ranks him second to American Justin Gatlin this season, third overall in terms of time. The 32-year-old sub-10 king, is the only Jamaican male in the top 10 in the world this year. Nesta Carter by virtue of his season-best 9.98s is 11th fastest, 12th in terms of time. Usain Bolt, the 100-metre world record holder, in terms of time run, is ranked 48th! You know what that means? If the World Champs were this weekend, Bolt would be running among the qualifiers.

It’s just as bad in the 200m, where Bolt’s 20.13 is the ninth fastest time in the world this year. Nickel Ashmeade is ranked 16th, Julian Forte 17th.

On the women’s side, Shelly Ann Fraser Pryce, who is returning from injury to compete at the National Championships at the National Stadium this weekend, is the world leader in the 100m. Her 10.81 puts her on top, but the Ivory Coast’s Murielle Ahoure, and America’s Torie Bowie with times of 10.81 and 10.82 respectively, are right there with her. Fortunately, Elaine Thompson (10.84) is also there keeping Shelly company and improves Jamaica’s prospects of winning another medal in the 100m in Beijing.

In the 200 metres SAFP and Thompson, who have similar times of 22.37 are both ranked 11th in the world, well out of medal contention this summer.

Jamaicans have been buoyed by the steady progression in the men’s 400 metres and on paper the country’s prospects of an individual medal in the event have improved in recent times. Javon Francis’ 44.50 and Rusheen McDonald’s 44.60 puts each man in the mix for medals based on the assumption that they could make further improvements as we get closer to Beijing. However, as of right now their times have them ranked at sixth and tenth respectively.

Among the women Stephanie Ann McPherson is ranked fifth, Novelene Williams Mills 10th and Kaliese Spencer 11th. On paper, as of this moment, with Beijing still two months away, Jamaica potentially will win two medals in the sprints – one from Asafa and one from Shelly Ann.

In the 400-metre hurdles, Spencer is ranked third in the world behind two Americans. In fact, she is the only Jamaican ranked inside the top 10 in the world in terms of time. Janieve Russell is ranked 10th. In the sprint hurdles, there are no Jamaican women in the top 10. Danielle Williams, the best ranked Jamaican, is 15th.

Jason Morgan has the best discus mark in the world, according to the IAAF rankings. There are two throws of over 70 metres that I am aware of but they have not yet been ratified so as far as I am concerned, Morgan is still number one. Frederick Dacres, a former world leader this year, is ranked eighth.

The prospects for medals in the relays remain high as Jamaica is ranked second among the men in the sprint relays, and first among the women. In the mile relay, Jamaica is second best while the men are ranked fourth.

Now, I know a lot can change in two months and they most certainly will but as of right now. Jamaica stands to win four individual medals and three relay medals at the World Championships in Beijing and based on the look of things there might not be any gold among them. For many Jamaicans who thought this golden run could last forever, that would be major heartbreak.