Can Gay Win?

For most people following the 12th IAAF World Championships that begin in Berlin this weekend Usain Bolt seems a lock for the sprint double over defending champion American Tyson Gay.

And you really can’t blame anyone for believing that this is the way things will unfold. The way the 22-year-old star dominated the sprints in Beijing in 2008, breaking the 100 metre world record twice and dipping under 9.80 seconds four times, it would be foolhardy to bet against him.

However, Tyson Gay presents a much bigger challenge than many would realise.

Gay, who was injured during the first round of the men’s 200 metres in the gruelling US Championships in 2008 and did not make it past the semi-finals in the 100 metres in Beijing, used the off season to heal and prepare to take on the seemingly invincible Bolt who has not lost since Asafa Powell edged him over the 100 metres in Stockholm in late July last year.

That defeat offers sort of a blueprint to how the triple Olympic champion can be upset by Gay in Berlin. Bolt is not a great starter but he is able to use exceptional acceleration to compensate. Had this been last season, it would not even matter that his start is still not great but this year it does.

Gay has improved his rate of turnover and is a lot stronger and this has resulted in fast times every time he has stepped on the track this season. He ran a windy 9.75 at the US trials, and followed that up with a very fast 9.77 seconds in Rome and 9.79 w in Stockholm. He also has times of 19.58 seconds and 20.00 for the 200 metres. He is a legitimate threat to Bolt, who has not run quite as fast 9.79 seconds and 9.91 into a -1.7m/s wind which effectively makes the time 9.81 seconds.

Gay has also managed to convince himself that he can beat Bolt and that is half the battle.

If Gay can get his legs going before Bolt gets his long legs under him and begins his superman-like acceleration in the finals of the men’s 100 metres, he could conceivably hold Bolt off long enough to defend his 100-metre crown. Bolt is faster, yes, but his faulty start and his oft-interrupted training schedule that has rendered him a little less sharp this season makes him more vulnerable.

It has been three weeks since Bolt last raced. If he managed to raise his fitness level to close to what it was in Beijing last year he will emerge the winner in Berlin over both short sprints, but if he hasn’t be prepared to be shocked as Gay could short-circuit the lightning Bolt.

Tags: Leighton Levy