MAURICE GREENE WILL BE PROVEN WRONG ABOUT BOLT

During a press conference held here in Jamaica in January 2010, multiple World and Olympic champion Maurice Greene told members of the local media that Carmelita Jeter was not a championship performer. He was responding to questions about whether Jeter was a threat to Jamaica’s strong contingent of female sprinters that had dominated the Olympics in Beijing in 2008 when this little country’s sprinters finished 1-2-2 in the women’s 100-metre sprint and then returned with a 1-2-4 performance at the IAAF World Championships in Berlin a year later.

Greene said Jeter was a female version of our very own Asafa Powell, who it is well known tends to have a bit of trouble performing at his best during major championships. Sympathizers will say he has not been at his best because he has had to contend with a series of injuries but whether that is actually the case or not, nobody will forget the headlines from Osaka in 2007 that screamed ‘I CHOKED’, quoting the former world record holder who buckled under the pressure of the men’s 100-metre finals and Tyson Gay.

At the World Championships this year in Daegu, South Korea, Jeter proved Greene wrong when she won two gold medals; in the 100 metres where she defeated Veronica Campbell Brown, Shelly Ann Frazer and Kerron Stewart and then in the 4×100 metre relay. She also put up a stern challenge in the women’s 200 metres where she copped silver over one of the favourites Alyson Felix. It was her first campaign at the 200 metres at that level.  A few weeks later when she spoke with me on Sportsnation Live, she remarked that she doesn’t know why people think of her as a choker. Neither do I.

This time around Greene is picking Blake to beat Bolt in London during the 30th Olympiad. “If everybody competes like they did this year, I’d say Yohan Blake is going to win,” Greene told BBC Radio 5 live. “He’s the world champion so his confidence is getting higher and higher all the time. Remember they train together and the way it sounds to me, he [Blake] seems to be the dominant person in the 100m in their training group. So everyday they are training together, his confidence is getting bigger and bigger. When they come to the Games, if Usain is still having those problems, Blake’s confidence level will be through the roof and he’s going to be hard to handle. Usain has trouble in close races. If you think about the close races he’s had, he’s lost [them].”

I agree with him that Blake’s confidence is on the rise. Blake is a beast, as he has been calling himself these days and there is no doubt that he represents the next wave of super sprinters coming out of Jamaica that will dominate the world, but with regards to Bolt let’s not forget who we’re talking about here. Bolt has been special from the first time he set foot on the track and while back in those days at William Knibb and at the IAAF High Performance Centre he had his fair share of challenges including a mindset that said he could do it all on talent, Bolt has matured now to the point where he knows what is required to be on top and to stay there. Five world records at championship events not including Daegu, speaks volumes about Bolt’s skills. Also, in a year when he was clearly not at his best, to be unbeaten except for the false start in the 100 metres men’s finals at the world championships, also highlights how dominant Bolt can be.

Now this is not to say that Blake is not a real threat to Bolt. By virtue of the moniker ‘The Beast’ we know Blake is not cut from the regular mould. He is a super-talented athlete honed by Danny Hawthorne at St. Jago and then Glen Mills. Blake has no fear and now that he is world champion and has run back-to-back 9.82 100s in still conditions and 19.26 over the 200 metres, we know he is going to be very fast next season. But that doesn’t mean he is going to beat Bolt.

Remember now that at his best, Bolt is a 9.58/19.9 sprinter, the 19.19 run after seven rounds of competition. He was also just shy of 23 years old. Note also that Bolt at 25 is nearing his physical prime. It is a time when even if he wasnt an athlete his body would be nearing it’s peak in terms of strength levels. Going into London when he will be a month or so shy of his 26th birthday, Bolt’s natural strength levels will be augmented by his gym and endurance work so once he remains healthy and trains like he is supposed to, he should be faster than ever before. That itself is a scary thought even for Blake, whose 19.26 was a one-off race run on fresh legs and on an abundance of confidence coming off a successful world championships and back to back runs that resulted in the seventh fastest time in history (even adjusted for wind and altitude).

By comparison Blake is only just learning the challenges of top-level competition, he also has mechanical adjustments that he will be working on this off season; adjustments that he will still be getting used to once the Olympics roll around next summer. Knowing Mills, Blake is going to do serious damage in 2012 and I am sure that Gay and Powell will have their work cut out if they plan to keep him behind them, but as far as Bolt is concerned that may not be the case. His injuries (hamstrings and toe) that interrupted his training last season are now behind him. If ever he was getting bored Blake, Dix and LeMaitre as well as a returning Tyson Gay will surely get him excited once more as contrary to what Greene believes, Bolt relishes a challenge.

Greene believes Bolt loses closes races. I am wondering what races he is referring to. The last time a healthy Bolt lost a close race was in 2008 in Stockholm when he lost to Powell 9.88 to 9.89s. That was a time when he was still learning how to sprint and prior to the Olympic Games in Beijing. Last year he lost to Gay in Stockholm when he was being bothered by back spasms and sore Achilles tendons. Gay himself acknowledged that he knew Bolt, who by the way is over that same time span unbeaten over the deuce, was not healthy so except for those two races and the false start in Daegu, Bolt has not lost a race so I am wondering where Greene gets his information.  Bolt ran a bunch of close races this past season and won them all over Powell, Mullings, and Nesta Carter. Three races in three years, one of them being a non-start doesn’t mean Bolt loses close races, it just means that when he is not at his best races can be close. When he is at his best, no one comes close.