Reviving Jamaica’s Railroad

The government continues to signal its intention to resume the operation of the railroad.  There is talk of high speed rail and even off the ground rail similar to that which exists in Miami.  All of this will be provided at a formidable cost of over US$600 million or over JA$52 billion.

Now I would be more than happy to see a resumption in service but the numbers and the plans being talked about seem to be way too optimistic.  Who will be willing to invest such a large sum of money in Jamaica’s railways because it is certain that the government has no money available for the project?  In addition any investor will have to bear in mind the recent trend of rail lines being scrapped and sold to the scrap metal trade.  For trains operating at high speeds it will be a major disaster if even one piece of track disappears and could result in significant loss of life.  There will of course be the usual problem of persons trying to hop on the trains in order to get a free ride.

Assuming that all of these problems are overcome, what will be the cost to ride the railroad and who will be able to afford it?  To recover this amount of money and to be viable there would either have to be large numbers of users or very high prices.  Currently the bus service continues to operate at a significant loss because persons can’t afford to pay the actual cost of the service.  Another point to consider is the effect that restarting rail services may have on other transportation providers.  The JUTC and taxi operators could be squeezed out of operation if railway succeeds and jobs will need to be provided for these persons.

 It seems to me that transportation as a whole needs to be looked at in order to determine what role the train service will play.  It may be that a limited service running between certain cities and a greater reliance on carrying freight may be the best strategy at this time.  I have not seen any statistics on expected passenger loads and cargo loads.  This is an important part of determining the viability of the project.  The investor wants to make a return on his investment and needs the support of the traveling public.  We are seeing what is occurring with the toll roads.  Once things are tight people begin to cut back and travel is one of the first areas to cut.

Perhaps the real reason for restoring the railroad has little to do with transport but rather to do with pride.  It may be a dream to return to the glory days and to prove that we can compete with developed countries that have first class rail services.  The problem with dreams is that you eventually have to wake up and face reality.